🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Trader Earned $436,000 from Wagers Predicting Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. An individual profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was made public, raising questions about whether someone profited from non-public details of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that the leader would be removed from office by the end of January increased in the time leading up to Donald Trump declared on January 3rd that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody. A particular user, which joined the platform recently and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, profited a total of $nearly half a million from a modest bet of over $32,000. The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Market Signals Before News Break Market statistics shows that participants estimated the likelihood of a political change at just under 7% in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. Yet the odds had climbed to 11% by late Friday night and surged in the morning of the next day, pointing to a sharp shift in betting activity just before the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a trade based on inside information," commented a financial reform advocate. A small number of other platform users also earned significant sums from bets on the same outcome. Legal Questions Emerges Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A bill introduced on Monday seeks to ban federal workers from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market. The Prediction Market Landscape Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in the United States, with participants able to bet on everything from elections to politics. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. But it has experienced less resistance during the current presidency. Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are less oversight in the forecasting arena. An official representative for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."